Linux desktop continues to grow with four per cent market share

[Redaktion]

For the second month in a row, Linux on the desktop has reached a market adoption rate of over 4%, according to Statcounter.com. Will 2024 be the much-touted "year of the Linux desktop"?

https://www.notebookcheck.net/Linux-desktop-continues-to-grow-with-four-per-cent-market-share.825874.0.html

[The Werewolf]

Well.. since 4% means 96% of the market isn't running it... then no, I'd have to say unless they can grow that to 51% in the next 7 months or so, I'd have to say it's still not here.

Then again, what does "The Year of the Linux Desktop" even mean?

Afterall, macOS is around 15% of all desktops and laptops, but if the tech press (and movies and TVs in general) are to be believed, Apple controls 95% of the computer market.

[A]

Well.. since 4% means 96% of the market isn't running it... then no, I'd have to say unless they can grow that to 51% in the next 7 months or so, I'd have to say it's still not here.

Then again, what does "The Year of the Linux Desktop" even mean?

Afterall, macOS is around 15% of all desktops and laptops, but if the tech press (and movies and TVs in general) are to be believed, Apple controls 95% of the computer market.

It actually makes up 6%, not 4%. 4% is all linux distros except ChromeOS which in itself makes up 2%. The number may still be a bit higher for those on linux but set their user agent to windows to be less identifiable since many switch to linux for privacy reasons. And since the source is statcounter, it likely doesn't count if you have an adblocker that is configured to block these things (which again more likely a linux user would be blocking these things relatively to a windows user)

Of course that is global share and actual amounts vary by country. for example in India they don't sell chromeOS there officially, but Linux by itself commands 15.64% and it jumped to that number in just around 2 years

As for what year of the linux desktop means. I think it means either become dominant OS or break into mainstream. Hence one can say India is already having their "Year of the linux desktop" as far as mainstream goes. Even more so that stats tend to lag as people tend to use their pcs for 3-8 years on average. I really wonder if that is just people loading up linux on laptops there, or considering the sudden growth is linux already outselling windows there. I know the government is pushing to replace windows with linux in both government and schools but I do wonder what the actual situation is down there in India

[Hotz]

Yeah, I also noticed the huge number of Linux systems when watching Youtube videos. Maybe the people down there just don't have the money for a Windows license. Also the people down there mostly don't have good gaming rigs, many of them still playing on integrated graphics. It may indeed be the "Year of Linux desktop" down there.

[A]

Yeah, I also noticed the huge number of Linux systems when watching Youtube videos. Maybe the people down there just don't have the money for a Windows license. Also the people down there mostly don't have good gaming rigs, many of them still playing on integrated graphics. It may indeed be the "Year of Linux desktop" down there.

The thing about that is, pirating of windows is common in the developing world. You can even install windows without pirating these days and use it. Just you would have a few limitations in the GUI like editing wallpaper and other such stuff, which can be done manually or through 3rd party tools

So the shift isn't due to the cost. Windows did add tpm requirements for w11, but there are ways around that. It is possible that it just ends up being laggy on low end hardware that is causing the shift. Other than that, it is likely some sort of cultural shift due to the government push.

But there isn't much media coverage of what is going on there. At best you have some outlets passively mention based on circumstantial evidence, but none of them seem to have gotten in contact with local residents to see what is the core of the situation

[NikoB]

Another 15 years will pass and all Linux distributions will still have 4-6%. Because they are fundamentally unsafe and extremely difficult to configure, especially security. And the developers of free Linux distributions essentially do not check anything and are not responsible for anything.

As proven by the recent XZ backdoor scandal - www.wired.com/story/xz-backdoor-everything-you-need-to-know/
But this is just the tip of the iceberg with security problems in Linux, which I have explained in detail many times. The average person simply cannot set up even a firewall in any Linux distribution, although he can do this in Windows. No one will configure a bunch of settings via the command line.

What are the chances that an outside attacker could easily penetrate the Windows codebase? His chances are a million times worse...
That is why the majority of the population rightly does not trust Linux distributions; they are well aware that an illegally activated copy of Windows remains the same official version in code as those who pay for it. And it is 1000 times easier to set up and always has the latest drivers and hardware support and a bunch of commercial software (which is also used for free, although illegally by the majority) which simply does not exist and will not exist on Linux.

So Linux as a desktop OS has no chance against Windows in the future, as the previous pathetic attempts of the Linux community over the last 25 years have proven....

[A]

Another 15 years will pass and all Linux distributions will still have 4-6%. Because they are fundamentally unsafe and extremely difficult to configure, especially security. And the developers of free Linux distributions essentially do not check anything and are not responsible for anything.

Linux already dominates most fields other than the desktop, mobile, tablets, servers, and etc. It will win one way or the other, either be it through taking share or simply the desktop dying.

That said, with the growth going on in India, it will likely surpass 7% even this year

In Jan 2024, Linux Desktop(including ChromeOS) was 5.77%, in Mar 2024 it is now 6.32%

As proven by the recent XZ backdoor scandal -
But this is just the tip of the iceberg with security problems in Linux, which I have explained in detail many times. The average person simply cannot set up even a firewall in any Linux distribution, although he can do this in Windows. No one will configure a bunch of settings via the command line.

The XZ scandal only goes to show that open source does work. Precisely because it was easily detected before it went into an LTS distro

The vector of attack they chose was actually because some distros use tarballs instead of going off the source directly. The exploit was in test binary files which normally would not be included but during the test it injects code. Even that attempt was spotted by automated systems and they had to rely on social engineering to try to push it. Things are already being done to mitigate this kind of trick that tries to hide source code

The average person does not need to set up a firewall, beginner friendly linux distros are as easy if not easier to use than Windows

What are the chances that an outside attacker could easily penetrate the Windows codebase? His chances are a million times worse...

Very easy, since any hack or any rogue actor can add an exploit to the code and you wouldn't know about it. On top of that, MS can add an exploit intentionally. You would never know without lots of reverse engineering and nothing definite

That is why the majority of the population rightly does not trust Linux distributions; they are well aware that an illegally activated copy of Windows remains the same official version in code as those who pay for it. And it is 1000 times easier to set up and always has the latest drivers and hardware support and a bunch of commercial software (which is also used for free, although illegally by the majority) which simply does not exist and will not exist on Linux.

So Linux as a desktop OS has no chance against Windows in the future, as the previous pathetic attempts of the Linux community over the last 25 years have proven....

The majority of the population does not even know what Linux is, nor care what Windows is either. The fact that Linux owns more OS marketshare than Windows (when counting all consumer operating systems including mobile) shows they could care less about windows or anything that you mentioned

With more and more commercial software going into the cloud as they try to push subscriptions, there even that advantage is fading.

And with many governments mandating a move away from windows to do business with them, the writing is on the wall

PS an illegally activated copy of windows modifies binaries and can have spyware and viruses in it. Most people get viruses precisely because they download illegal software. It is funny how you don't trust open source, yet trust closed source illegally modified software by unknown people

[NikoB]

an illegally activated copy of windows modifies binaries and can have spyware and viruses in it

Troll, you don't even know how to activate Windows. It only requires a text bat file, which does not change anything in the system in terms of the code base and it does not even need an internet connection to activate any version of Windows in 15 seconds. It is 100% safe and secure,
just like "legal" activation.

That is why I wrote that M$ deliberately left this hole in the activation system for 9 years in order to continue to maintain an overwhelming market share. They know that more than 70% of the users in the world are sitting on illegally activated copies of Windows and calmly look at it, because it is actually extremely profitable for them, because they would not be able to get money from these users anyway, but they influence them choices and preferences and receive telemetry from everyone, just like in Linux by default. In which there is one continuous gift to the Internet by default in all distributions, but eliminating it is much more difficult for the average person than setting up the built-in firewall in Windows.


All the rest of the nonsense only confirmed the facts - Windows is an order of magnitude more comfortable and convenient than any "free" Linux distribution, which is why in 25 years it has not been able to advance in desktop versions of the OS any significantly in terms of market share. And just like 25 years ago, there is a total mess with security and no one is responsible for anything. And people don't want to use a product made by a bunch of red-eyed people who don't care about anything and are not responsible for anything. How many other bookmarks are there because there is no control? And there is no real audit. Even the latest discovery was purely an accident. Luck, not systematic work.

[Hotz]

Windows is an order of magnitude more comfortable and convenient than any "free" Linux distribution, which is why in 25 years it has not been able to advance in desktop versions of the OS any significantly in terms of market share.

Actually, from booting the install media to a usable desktop experience, Linux is easier than Windows.

- The install process of Linux is very simple: it's basically clicking "next, next, next" done.

- The install process on Windows requires an internet connection and forced registering of a Microsoft account. Any workaround possibilities are hidden, and require research in the internet, and secret key combinations.


If you let a "dumb user" install both things, the "dumb user" will rather finish installing Linux than Windows. This is a purely objective observation.


P.S.: In spite of that, I'm not happy about the state of Linux on the desktop, its overwhelming diversity, it's missing consistency. So I'm still using Windows and learning the workarounds. It's sad, because Windows is also s***. But the state of Linux is also s***.

[NikoB]

The install process on Windows requires an internet connection and forced registering of a Microsoft account. Any workaround possibilities are hidden, and require research in the internet, and secret key combinations.

Nonsense, all this can be easily done with one command.

If you let a "dumb user" install both things, the "dumb user" will rather finish installing Linux than Windows. This is a purely objective observation.

These are just your wet dreams. The reality is that Windows will continue to have the overwhelming market share, and it will still be the same in 10 years. For a bunch of objective reasons.

Something big needs to happen with Windows for the population to move on to the Linux mess. I don't see anything like that likely in the next 10-15 years.

But of course you keep trying. Trying is not torture...

[A]

Troll, you don't even know how to activate Windows. It only requires a text bat file, which does not change anything in the system in terms of the code base and it does not even need an internet connection to activate any version of Windows in 15 seconds. It is 100% safe and secure,
just like "legal" activation.


That is why I wrote that M$ deliberately left this hole in the activation system for 9 years in order to continue to maintain an overwhelming market share. They know that more than 70% of the users in the world are sitting on illegally activated copies of Windows and calmly look at it,

It sets your KMS server away from MS one to their own. Even if you don't need internet access immediately, it will contact their server after some days

because it is actually extremely profitable for them, because they would not be able to get money from these users anyway, but they influence them choices and preferences and receive telemetry from everyone, just like in Linux by default. In which there is one continuous gift to the Internet by default in all distributions, but eliminating it is much more difficult for the average person than setting up the built-in firewall in Windows.

Most linux distros have 0 telemetry enabled by default, when it is there it is usually opt-in, not opt out like windows. Windows also has telemetry in dozens of places you need to turn it off and even then it doesn't completely go away. And the source code for linux ones if you opt in can be read to see what data is actually being sent if you do opt in for it.

All the rest of the nonsense only confirmed the facts - Windows is an order of magnitude more comfortable and convenient than any "free" Linux distribution, which is why in 25 years it has not been able to advance in desktop versions of the OS any significantly in terms of market share. And just like 25 years ago, there is a total mess with security and no one is responsible for anything. And people don't want to use a product made by a bunch of red-eyed people who don't care about anything and are not responsible for anything. How many other bookmarks are there because there is no control? And there is no real audit. Even the latest discovery was purely an accident. Luck, not systematic work.

If you want someone accountable, paid versions of linux exist like RedHat, SuSe and Ubuntu Enterprise. What you don't have accountability for is if you opt for the free versions. No one gives you accountability for your pirated windows version either

Marketshare is dictated what OEMs include. If they include Android, it ends up the default. If you include Windows, it ends up the default. Users have 0 attachment to windows

[RobertJasiek]

Most linux distros have 0 telemetry enabled by default, when it is there it is usually opt-in, not opt out

A few years ago, there were plans to introduce opt-out telemetry in Ubuntu. I have not followed its recent development but wonder: is it opt-in or opt-out now?

[Neenyah]

Ubuntu is not most distros, it's just one. Telemetry was related to Unity, they switched to Gnome since then. You have to opt in if you want to send.

[Hotz]

Nonsense, all this can be easily done with one command.

You are writing nonsense. Your "one command" is not visible in the installation process and not known by the average Joe. The average Joe would have to research first to skip that, or forced to register a Microsoft account. None of these things are required for installing Linux.

These are just your wet dreams. The reality is that Windows will continue to have the overwhelming market share, and it will still be the same in 10 years.

These were not "my dreams", but was a purely objective observation. Give one an install stick with Linux Mint/Ubuntu and then one with Windows 11, and you'll see.

The reality is that Windows will continue to have the overwhelming market share, and it will still be the same in 10 years.

Of course it is the reality! But this was not the debate, and I was not arguing against that. I was only saying that installing Windows has become a bigger annoyance than installing Linux.

[NikoB]

A few years ago, there were plans to introduce opt-out telemetry in Ubuntu. I have not followed its recent development but wonder: is it opt-in or opt-out now?

In all popular Linux distributions, telemetry is enabled by default, just like in Windows, and you will get tired of disabling it in a bunch of places, just like in Windows. And naturally, the average person will never be able to audit even a small fraction of the code of any Linux distribution, so this is stupid demagoguery in favor of idiots from trolls like "A".

Even if you don't need internet access immediately, it will contact their server after some days

Again 100% false. The activation script WITHOUT the Internet works in 15 seconds. After this, even if you delete KMS without turning on the Internet, activation remains forever. Everything is 100% safe. In addition, there are other digital activation methods that do not require KMS and which deceive the M$ activation server, which pretends that everything is in order, intentionally, because it is beneficial for it to maintain an overwhelming share in the desktop OS market (which in turn is beneficial US authorities for geopolitical purposes, so they diligently do not notice a direct violation of US antitrust laws) and this is a proven fact. Same with Intel. Same with Alphabet (Google). This influence is so important that the duplicity of the US authorities is obvious to any sane person. Unfortunately, there are an order of magnitude more idiots on the planet...

If you want someone accountable, paid versions of linux exist like RedHat, SuSe and Ubuntu Enterprise. What you don't have accountability for is if you opt for the free versions.

Another stupid demagoguery, long ago refuted by me. M$ has already supported Windows for 10 years, whether you bought it or illegally activated it. And even the dumbest average person on the planet understands the difference and that is why he always chooses Windows over "free" Linux. =)

You are writing nonsense. Your "one command" is not visible in the installation process and not known by the average Joe. The average Joe would have to research first to skip that, or forced to register a Microsoft account. None of these things are required for installing Linux.

You write nonsense. If the average person is not dumb as a mouse, it is enough to enter the phrase in Google on how to bypass this limitation and the dumbest average person will immediately be given the correct answer on the first page with the results. So this is never a problem. And if the average person is so stupid that he can't even type the question into a Google search, then he doesn't care. But less than 10% of people on the planet have this level of stupidity - complete intellectual disabilities, i.e. finished downs.

These were not "my dreams", but was a purely objective observation. Give one an install stick with Linux Mint/Ubuntu and then one with Windows 11, and you'll see.

I had no problem installing w11 in 5 minutes even on a machine with c2d 15 years ago. At the same time, I had never been interested in this before, I just asked Google at that moment in the past how to bypass the restrictions - and found the answer on the first page of search results. Therefore, everything you wrote is nonsense by definition. Anyone who needs this will find the answer instantly in any search engine.

At the same time, a Windows user will always receive the best support from drivers for the latest hardware, which is 100% excluded under any Linux distribution.

I remember installing the latest version of Ubuntu in 2019 on an AMD machine. And that there was not even support for Intel AX200 and Lenovo hotkeys, and the most shameful thing was that there was no VP9 hardware acceleration on YouTube, all this appeared only much later, but in W10 everything worked right away and all the drivers were in place.

Even installing banal Skype in Ubuntu, for me as an IT professional, turned into a whole quest with the Linux command line, at a time when any housewife on Windows installed Skype with a couple of mouse clicks.

Nobody needs your mess with Linux and the pitiful share of 2-3%, just like 25 years ago, only proved this.

Q.E.D.