It's a little more complicated. No matter how stupid American officials and businesses may be, they were nevertheless smart enough not to give all the key technologies to the Chinese, but to place them in Taiwan and around China. In China, there are only assembly plants that are made in Taiwan, the USA and a number of other countries.

All maintenance of key items of ASML equipment is also done exclusively by ASML employees. Of course, there is a problem with espionage, and some employees are always rats for money, but they are identified.

If China actually had complete documentation of all the key technologies of the West and had the human capital to copy. He would have done it already. But they can't.

In the USSR, by 1949 they were able to copy an atomic bomb using drawings stolen in the USA, by quickly creating the necessary production facilities and with the availability of high-quality human capital immediately after the Second World War. And they were the first to make thermonuclear bomb and the first to fly into space. But this was a brief moment based on a layer of quality, but "old school" human capital (which was taught by the tsarist professors and teachers with a very good level of university training, who almost all knew 3-4 foreign languages - English, German, French and Latin), which, from purely from sharply growing patriotic considerations (especially after the Second World War), despite the massive persecution of the intelligentsia before 1941 and after WW2 by totalitarian goverment, helped the Stalinist regime, contrary to the logic of the moment, to advance sharply technologically.

I wonder what would have happened to the USSR if there had not been a World War II, with the increase in totalitarian practices and the complete degradation of patriotism? Most likely it collapsed by the 60s, early 70s, almost certainly. It was the victory in World War II and the powerful growth of patriotism and enthusiasm of people in a destroyed country that contributed to the fact that even the intelligentsia, who understood the whole essence of this terrible totalitarian machine, began to help this system recover. And in vain they helped them.

Can the current Chinese totalitarians, by attacking Taiwan, sharply increase the growth of patriotism and temporarily reduce the resistance of the intelligentsia to the totalitarian machine and even start advanced productive activity for the benefit of the klepcrats? I doubt.
At a minimum, for this it is necessary that the United States attack China, so that the war for the Chinese population becomes patriotically domestic, and not an obvious act of aggression against another state, so that propaganda does not scream loudly there.

Let's remember history - Stalin understood perfectly well that it would be more profitable to attack Hitler first in 1940-1941, but he waited patiently, knowing that even against the backdrop of losses, the war for his country would become a just domestic war, and not external aggression. He was wise(or his closest advisors), although bloodthirsty.

Putin and his kleptocrats are not like that, he is just a pathetic shadow of Stalin (having destroyed the country to the ground in terms of industrial, scientific and social potential during 25 years of rule - in fact, they are national traitors, although they brand others for this and throw them into prison, kill those who points out the obvious facts that it is Putin's vertical that are the traitors) and his associates, but he has nuclear weapons, the largest arsenal in the world, despite an almost 10-fold reduction since the times of the USSR, so he gets away with almost everything, no matter what he does, and the United States plays along with him in this, despite all the fictitious "sanctions" (moreover, publicly declaring that they are against Putin's vertical, and not against the common people, but everything is exactly the opposite - Putin's kleptocrats and oligarchs travel freely in the West and having fun, buying assets as before, just with more complex workarounds and increased bribes to officials in Europe and the USA), obviously after 2 years of the bloody show in Ukraine.


But by the 1970s, new personnel began to come to the USSR in science and engineering. who did not know 3-4 languages and could not even read Western documentation in the original for the purpose of self-education en masse, although formally they had a "higher education" according to the new standards of the USSR (here is an interesting fact - if the United States really begins to lag behind in science and progress (it really doesn't yet), is it time for its youth to learn Chinese?), and even more so correctly and clearly copy Western technologies normally (moreover, when not there was a real private interest in this, except for extremely low wages, and not a share in business and private ownership of the means of production), because higher education after the Second World War, as the Russian old professors wrote, sharply degraded precisely because the highest power kleptocrats They were terrified of the expansion of a well-educated "middle class" with knowledge of several foreign languages, which almost all high school students in Tsarist Russia knew and who were able to read in the original not only technical literature, but also the political press and the works of Western writers, which could lead to a new revolution already against them. Thus, over several generations of students, they brought the situation with higher education in the USSR to a completely deplorable level. I emphasize on average, although there have always been rare stars, they do not determine the overall strength of the country in scientific and technical progress - but a wide layer of extremely educated intelligentsia that flourished in the USA and was forgotten in the USSR. As a result, the United States, by pumping up the "middle class" with credit and a generally comfortable social environment, secured a powerful scientific and technological lead by the 1980s. And the USSR is mired in a swamp. And the envy of the "middle class" of the USSR towards the standard of living and freedoms in the West only grew along with the growth of communications. Everything was decided in the 80s. The USSR collapsed, and besides, the local middle-level nomenklatura was also interested in the emergence of private ownership of the means of production, and therefore also contributed to the collapse of the USSR.

In China/Russian Federation there is now formally private ownership (although in reality it is fictitious even in the USA) of the means of production and the right to accumulate capital. But these are all also totalitarian countries. Russia remained a totalitarian country in the 90s.

It was not for nothing that I wrote above about the forerunner that led the USSR to socio-economic collapse in the context of what is now happening in China. The new regimes in Russia and China are smarter in terms of manipulating the crowd of ordinary residents (and control technologies have reached a new, previously unimaginable level) and formally (only formally) create the appearance of the existence of law and private property, but they are also infinitely stupid in plan to create a comfortable socio-economic climate for the emergence of that very fruitful layer of the "middle class", which contributed to the rapid separation from other countries of the United States and its closest allies in the 20th century against the backdrop of the Cold War.

Therefore, their collapse is a foregone conclusion, despite the fact that the United States and its allies are themselves on a spiral of collapse and are rapidly losing that same productive and creative "middle class" along with a drop in the level of both school and higher education. This level is still enough to train Chinese students to copy already invented technologies or for them to join the ranks of scientists in the USA/Europe, but not enough to create advanced productive strata capable of new discoveries and the next revolution in science and technology. The bet on "AI" will end in fiasco in the next 15-20 years, because... will not solve the growing systemic problems in the West.

There is no good end for humanity here anymore. Young people entering adulthood will have to choose the best of evils and, of course, woe to future retirees. They are all being robbed and robbed by the growth of inflation turning into hyperinflation through the depreciation of personal savings on a massive scale. This has always been the case and this will be the case this time, when the ruling kleptocracies and populist politicians serving their interests are trying to evade responsibility by once again destroying the correct fabric of society and the economy, thanks to the connivance of the majority of the stupid population, which at the moment is an unjust redistribution of the results of the work of previous generations may even be profitable at the suggestion of these kleptocrats.

Rather sad or comical stuff...

"China" need not have ANY R&D expense/budget as companies around the world send them THEIR IP for the Chinese to assemble.

Out of pure GREED and justified by "everyone else is doing it" factories and abilities around the world got "out sourced" to China.

Granted, all China would have to do to CRIPPLE just about ANY country is to simply STOP EXPORTING to it!!!

When it comes to "duties", consumers ALWAYS are the ones that PAY for them. Be it in increased costs of the imported items OR (if they are ACTUALLY AVAILABLE!!) for the higher cost items produced in ones own country.

While China has both a labor and government subsidy advantage, many of the items that new tariffs are on DO NOT have a locally produced non-tariff option.

>There will be complete poverty in Russia, and then, as usual, the inevitable "revolution" here and there

There is perfect ukrainian proverb just about it - "Дай, Боже, нашому теляті вашого вовка з'їсти!", it could be translated to English as "May God help our calf to eat your wolf!". Complete poverty in Russia could come a little bit later than you think :)

>Rather, general degradation - in the USA (in the West as a whole) it is worse, in China it is even worse than in the USA.

China has 20 to 30 years at most to become world super-power. U.S. has less than a decade to prove it still is. It is not clearly obvious, who will win, but my bets are strongly eastern. No power could destroy Western dominance from outside, but wokeism and neo-marxism will certainly do it from inside.

Drastically accelerating inflation and his fall from the presidency.

It's one thing to bar technology that can be used for espionage, but it's quite another to bar basic materials and components that you use in your own local industry.

Someone needs to get this old man out of power!

Quote from: TruthIsThere on May 15, 2024, 06:43:47How about this U.S. - raise at least a 150% tariff (tax), at first, on Apple, Microsoft and other U.S. greediest companies that are continuing hurting consumers around the globe (since the global lockdown) with their extreme inflated prices (price-gouging) to ENCOURAGE them to reduce their prices or they will face even higher tariffs the longer they fail to comply and then, the same for your friends from Taiwan / South Korea / Japan from them all building (sourcing) from China, Vietnam, India, ect. at extremely cheap (child-building) rates, or the many 3rd- 4th-world countries' rates and later, they WILL ALL distribute that product several times the the cost that these greedy companies paid to manufacture it.

So what's the matter, raise the Chinese? But in reality, the SI will again wipe out (as always, without banning anything in response) and will continue to use Western technologies, because They don't have their own. But the envy of ordinary Chinese has not gone away, and with the growing level of consumption and education, this envy will only grow if they have to buy only local products based on backward technologies.

Exactly the envy of ordinary residents of the USSR towards the standard of living in the West in the 80s. as well as the desire of the middle and upper layer of kleptocrats to ensure the possibility of transferring stolen property to children (and in the USSR there was no private ownership of the means of production, etc., i.e., it was simply impossible to privatize any company/factory, through the purchase of shares, even for stolen/corrupt money of the highest kleptocrats) led to collapse. The United States always acts only in its own selfish interests, all other cries about democracy, freedom of speech and human rights are a smokescreen for idiots, who are the majority on the planet (but now much less, haha, after the demonstrative selfish duplicity of the West in Ukraine).

The United States already openly hates ordinary people in Ukraine and sets fire to military registration and enlistment offices, just like in Russia, and Zelensky's power is exactly the same totalitarian as in Russia.
The other day, the moral monster Blinken (US Secretary of Foreign Affairs) visited Ukraine and sang songs and had fun in Kyiv bars, while Ukrainians were dying in their hundreds and thousands at the front. Why are they dying there? When their kleptocrats of all stripes continue to steal and relax together with the kleptocrats of the USA and the EU? Their children are absent at the front and under bombing in cities and villages. It is the fault of the USA/England and allies that all this has been happening for 3 years in a row. But slave owners have no problem with the slaughter of ordinary sheep. Plus/minus a million heads of deceased slaves in the slaughterhouse - for them it's just statistics on the books. Until slaves start hanging them on lanterns. But for this they must truly wake up, be mentally reborn, but everything turns out exactly the opposite - they are becoming dumber and dumber and despondently go to the slaughter organized by the kleptocrats.
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But let's return to the usual topic for ordinary consumers:

In the Russian Federation, for example, Apple does not officially sell its products and no longer provides warranty support, but nevertheless there are a lot of people willing to buy them on the gray market. It's just that if earlier it was more accessible to ordinary people (taking into account the cost of risks), now only the rich can afford it. And the rich in the Russian Federation = kleptocrats in 98%+ of cases, especially now. As in most third countries with authoritarian or totalitarian rule.

If there is demand, there will always be supply.

And most importantly, what is the point of banning Microsoft programs in some country if they are already free, if the person is not a clinical idiot? Windows is a geopolitical weapon and the perfect spy data collection tool, like iOS, like Android, like everything else that the natives in the third world like.

What will the Chinese or Russians use en masse if Microsoft products and all other Western technologies are banned? The Chinese will immediately have to roll back their progress by at least 3-4 steps back (5 or more years ago). Who will like this among the ordinary herd? Again, it will quickly become dependent on ordinary people in the West. And this envy will grow and become critically dangerous for the local kleptocracy if the West increases its scientific and technological gap, especially in terms of everyday comfort for ordinary people. If the West is unable to increase the gap or it even begins to shrink, then yes, Westerners will soon feel very bad - their standard of living rests on the systemic seigniorage of fiat candy wrappers and the accumulation of debts, which almost everyone is currently using.

So what are the chances that China, mired in problems both economically and socially, will catch up with the West or even become the technological leader in the world in the next 20-30 years? The chances are minimal. Rather, general degradation - in the USA (in the West as a whole) it is worse, in China it is even worse than in the USA. There will be complete poverty in Russia, and then, as usual, the inevitable "revolution" here and there.

Good.
Medical supplies, in particular, should be produced within a country and nationalized. The pandemic showed how important domestic sources of medical supplies can be. Tariffs provide the economic incentive for this to start.

How about this U.S. - raise at least a 150% tariff (tax), at first, on Apple, Microsoft and other U.S. greediest companies that are continuing hurting consumers around the globe (since the global lockdown) with their extreme inflated prices (price-gouging) to ENCOURAGE them to reduce their prices or they will face even higher tariffs the longer they fail to comply and then, the same for your friends from Taiwan / South Korea / Japan from them all building (sourcing) from China, Vietnam, India, ect. at extremely cheap (child-building) rates, or the many 3rd- 4th-world countries' rates and later, they WILL ALL distribute that product several times the the cost that these greedy companies paid to manufacture it.

Oh, that's right... many of them helped you to get you elected into office... Opps... I mean... many of them lobbied... opps... I mean... all of them *supported* your candidacy. You can't mess that up huh, Biden?! 😏