Quote from: heffeque on July 06, 2023, 00:35:36Those are just stereotypes from 10 years ago.

I don't follow EVs very closely (because I agree with this:

QuoteAt this point the only thing that will kill off ICE cars is legislation and / or someone managing to squeeze 2-3 times the energy density into battery storage for a negligible cost increase

) but IIRC "Li" is one of the top-selling EV brands in China, only behind BYD and Tesla(while MG is nowhere in sight, funny thing). Now Li's entire business model is built upon peddling primitive extended-range vehicles running a dated engine design with a 9L/100km comprehensive fuel efficiency as true EVs, so they get the "green plate"(for so-called "new energy vehicles") that aren't as limited in supply as regular "blue plates"(for ICE vehicles) in major Chinese cities, because policy🙂. So at least in Li's case, no way in hell are they gonna sell in the US or EU🙂

Quote from: Vincero on July 02, 2023, 12:39:42Yeah sure they may save a few dollars / unit, but seeing as Tesla is already starting to loose out to much stronger competition, they should really be fighting for any market they can - they are still a small manufacturer.

I don't think it is penny pinching, I think it has to do with the fact that Musk's idea of bringing costs down is automation which becomes easier with EVs than ICE cars. The problem is left hand drive vehicles will need more work on calibrating the machines which is simply not worth doing. Maybe once they build that India factory they have been contemplating, left hand drive may return

Quote from: Vincero on July 05, 2023, 17:20:15This is why, despite its complexity, Hydrogen fuel cells are always looked at - the energy density payback.

No, they mostly have been used as a distraction to delay EVs. Do understand weight is 1 equation, volume is the other. And all the equipment you need for hydrogen cars is heavy, so much so that hydrogen cars tend to be heavier than EVs

QuoteOnce that energy density issue is resolved we might actually even see commercial battery powered aircraft.

The biggest hurdle here isn't energy density, it is the FAA. They take decades to approve anything. electric is already feasible for many short distance flights

Quote from: Vincero on July 05, 2023, 17:20:15Well, China is a bit of a different market - they have a lot of home grown makers who sell cheap and don't sell abroad and would probably struggle to get their cars certified in some markets. The other totally international brands (e.g. Toyota, Ford, etc.) are at a disadvantage in that scenario, especially with import taxes.

Only now are we seeing some of them branch out with their EVs (even though Great Wall have tried in the EU with ICE models before, and BYD part own other established makers).

Yes the writing is on the wall for mainstream ICE usage, but a long way to go in some areas.
At this point the only thing that will kill off ICE cars is legislation and / or someone managing to squeeze 2-3 times the energy density into battery storage for a negligible cost increase.
This is why, despite its complexity, Hydrogen fuel cells are always looked at - the energy density payback.

Still plenty of time for most of these companies to get their s**t together, but dealing with the 'race to the bottom' by some companies (like some of the China brands) will be their biggest issue.
Ironically VW have killed the eUP but in reality need to figure out how to make a successful replacement.

I see the legislation coming but not the battery developments needed to match the government timeframes.

Once that energy density issue is resolved we might actually even see commercial battery powered aircraft.

Those are just stereotypes from 10 years ago.

"they have a lot of home grown makers who sell cheap and don't sell abroad and would probably struggle to get their cars certified in some markets."
Are you from the past? (or from the States?) Chinese cars are selling quite well in Europe, and getting nice results on EuroNCAP.
Also Chinese brands are actually starting to build car factories in Europe, which clearly shows their intentions to stay and grow further.

Hidrogen is only being pushed by petro-lobbies, as it's their only way of maintenaning relevance in a future without combustion engines on road transportation. Hidrogen is extremely inefficient and expensive, and will never be a good alternative to electric cars.
Norway is paving the way. Other countries are following little by little.

Well, China is a bit of a different market - they have a lot of home grown makers who sell cheap and don't sell abroad and would probably struggle to get their cars certified in some markets. The other totally international brands (e.g. Toyota, Ford, etc.) are at a disadvantage in that scenario, especially with import taxes.

Only now are we seeing some of them branch out with their EVs (even though Great Wall have tried in the EU with ICE models before, and BYD part own other established makers).

Yes the writing is on the wall for mainstream ICE usage, but a long way to go in some areas.
At this point the only thing that will kill off ICE cars is legislation and / or someone managing to squeeze 2-3 times the energy density into battery storage for a negligible cost increase.
This is why, despite its complexity, Hydrogen fuel cells are always looked at - the energy density payback.

Still plenty of time for most of these companies to get their s**t together, but dealing with the 'race to the bottom' by some companies (like some of the China brands) will be their biggest issue.
Ironically VW have killed the eUP but in reality need to figure out how to make a successful replacement.

I see the legislation coming but not the battery developments needed to match the government timeframes.

Once that energy density issue is resolved we might actually even see commercial battery powered aircraft.

Quote from: Vincero on July 05, 2023, 12:58:50As every financial product advertisement states, previous performance is no guarantee of future success.

Well, that growth can't continue indefinitely - at the end of the day there will be only so many people willing to buy a Tesla (and these PR things work both ways) - unfortunately it would take a lot of research to know at whose expense that growth is coming from - I doubt it's the bread and butter cars from Ford, Toyota, etc, and most likely is impacting the Mercedes and BMW like crowd. There's only so many of them.

Whilst they haven't officially taken half their model lineup away, effectively they have - even if they are not their largest seller, having seen the amount of Tesla's on the road, they still sell a decent amount of the model S.
Obviously they are expecting the 3/Y to be their main sales short term - maybe they are willing to loose S/X sales to others until a replacement is due...

Also, there is an issue with comparing sales of incumbent brands selling ICE vehicles alongside EVs - they have no impetus to improve their EV sales as long as the ICE vehicles are still selling at a profit.

Tesla has the biggest growth as an EV supplier, which has been hard earned, but it would be foolish to think it would continue unabated - at some point a couple of the big ICE manufacturers will become EV only and some of them will have a lot more R&D money and a better mastery of their supply-chain/logistics compared to Tesla to drive their sales and profits.

Also, Tesla are gonna need to sell more than just the 4 model variants they have - small hatchbacks dominate European roads still as that convenience of small engine and energy dense fuel is much more convenient and cheaper than an equivalent EV (right now) - once the tables turn Tesla are actually behind a few manufacturers in terms of having an offering or platform for such a vehicle.

I'm not knocking Tesla, just being a realist. Think of how many diverse models the others sell. Tesla can't fill those markets with just the 3/Y or S/X, not in EU anyway.

I can tell you if you want: VW recently said that they are reducing production of electric cars because "there's no demand", while Tesla, SAIC, etc. are building new factories as fast as they can because they can't meet demand. So basically what VW should have said is "there's no demand... for VW electric vehicles" because their price/quality is terrible, so people prefer to buy from other brands.

Now go and check how European and Chinese markets are going regarding fully electric vehicles, and you'll understand that all countries are doing a slower version of Norway's graph: so basically non-electric vehicles are a dying technology as electric vehicles get better and cheaper every year, and as combustion-based vehicles get more expensive with no major advantages left vs electric vehicles.

Check what is happening with VW, Ford, Toyota, etc. in China (they'll be out of business there soon, when just a couple year ago they were dominating the market), and you'll understand what will happen with VW, Stellantis, etc. in Europe if they don't change their strategy soon.

Quote from: heffeque on July 05, 2023, 12:05:32

Quote from: Vincero on July 03, 2023, 23:28:18That may be so and I'm not knocking or commenting on their growth since the roadster back in to mid-late 2000s, but taking the UK market as the example here (as that is most applicable), Tesla's share (for all models of everything sold) is less than 4% - it was only just higher than Skoda which just offer rebadged VW's.

In the grand scheme of things that's not bad, especially considering the general supporting road infrastructure is still lacking, but Tesla is still not a big player. Bigger than 'niche' but a long way from being in the same sphere as the VW/Audi, Ford, Stellantis, Kia/Hyundai, etc., groups.

Just because you sell everything you build (badly in some cases) doesn't change the size of the operation compared to your competition - especially if you plan to take an approach which hands that competition an advantage.

That explanation has nothing to do with your comment "Tesla is already starting to loose out to much stronger competition".

Saying that Tesla in UK only has 4% is extremely short sighted, you have to look at two things: y2y groth patterns (their groth is not stagnating at all, and not showing signs of future stagnation), and percentage of fully electric vehicles Tesla is selling vs competitors, and... VW and other European brands are doing terrible. Basically Tesla (American) and MG (Chinese) are the ones pushing sales in Europe on the fully electric part.

As every financial product advertisement states, previous performance is no guarantee of future success.

Well, that growth can't continue indefinitely - at the end of the day there will be only so many people willing to buy a Tesla (and these PR things work both ways) - unfortunately it would take a lot of research to know at whose expense that growth is coming from - I doubt it's the bread and butter cars from Ford, Toyota, etc, and most likely is impacting the Mercedes and BMW like crowd. There's only so many of them.

Whilst they haven't officially taken half their model lineup away, effectively they have - even if they are not their largest seller, having seen the amount of Tesla's on the road, they still sell a decent amount of the model S.
Obviously they are expecting the 3/Y to be their main sales short term - maybe they are willing to loose S/X sales to others until a replacement is due...

Also, there is an issue with comparing sales of incumbent brands selling ICE vehicles alongside EVs - they have no impetus to improve their EV sales as long as the ICE vehicles are still selling at a profit.

Tesla has the biggest growth as an EV supplier, which has been hard earned, but it would be foolish to think it would continue unabated - at some point a couple of the big ICE manufacturers will become EV only and some of them will have a lot more R&D money and a better mastery of their supply-chain/logistics compared to Tesla to drive their sales and profits.

Also, Tesla are gonna need to sell more than just the 4 model variants they have - small hatchbacks dominate European roads still as that convenience of small engine and energy dense fuel is much more convenient and cheaper than an equivalent EV (right now) - once the tables turn Tesla are actually behind a few manufacturers in terms of having an offering or platform for such a vehicle.

I'm not knocking Tesla, just being a realist. Think of how many diverse models the others sell. Tesla can't fill those markets with just the 3/Y or S/X, not in EU anyway.

Quote from: Vincero on July 03, 2023, 23:28:18That may be so and I'm not knocking or commenting on their growth since the roadster back in to mid-late 2000s, but taking the UK market as the example here (as that is most applicable), Tesla's share (for all models of everything sold) is less than 4% - it was only just higher than Skoda which just offer rebadged VW's.

In the grand scheme of things that's not bad, especially considering the general supporting road infrastructure is still lacking, but Tesla is still not a big player. Bigger than 'niche' but a long way from being in the same sphere as the VW/Audi, Ford, Stellantis, Kia/Hyundai, etc., groups.

Just because you sell everything you build (badly in some cases) doesn't change the size of the operation compared to your competition - especially if you plan to take an approach which hands that competition an advantage.

That explanation has nothing to do with your comment "Tesla is already starting to loose out to much stronger competition".

Saying that Tesla in UK only has 4% is extremely short sighted, you have to look at two things: y2y groth patterns (their groth is not stagnating at all, and not showing signs of future stagnation), and percentage of fully electric vehicles Tesla is selling vs competitors, and... VW and other European brands are doing terrible. Basically Tesla (American) and MG (Chinese) are the ones pushing sales in Europe on the fully electric part.

Quote from: heffeque on July 03, 2023, 13:32:11

Quote from: Vincero on July 02, 2023, 12:39:42Tesla is already starting to loose out to much stronger competition, they should really be fighting for any market they can - they are still a small manufacturer.

What? Tesla has a 50% y2y growth... every-single-year (sans covid year). Tesla is selling everything they can build, and on top of that, at the highest margins compared to it's competitors.
Some people our really out of touch with reality.

That may be so and I'm not knocking or commenting on their growth since the roadster back in to mid-late 2000s, but taking the UK market as the example here (as that is most applicable), Tesla's share (for all models of everything sold) is less than 4% - it was only just higher than Skoda which just offer rebadged VW's.

In the grand scheme of things that's not bad, especially considering the general supporting road infrastructure is still lacking, but Tesla is still not a big player. Bigger than 'niche' but a long way from being in the same sphere as the VW/Audi, Ford, Stellantis, Kia/Hyundai, etc., groups.

Just because you sell everything you build (badly in some cases) doesn't change the size of the operation compared to your competition - especially if you plan to take an approach which hands that competition an advantage.

It would seem we had no disagreements on what side of the ocean to Sail on when it comes to boats. Funny how we all have different views on driving on the roads.. it's evident that there is no financial sense (with limited orders)in continuing with production of the high end Tesla models in Right hand drive in Europe. With that being said, given the hash the Brits made of Brexit, changing to left-hand drive would be a total disaster. so please let's not suggest that..😳

Left side... Right side... Just drive in the shade!

Quote from: Vincero on July 02, 2023, 12:39:42Tesla is already starting to loose out to much stronger competition, they should really be fighting for any market they can - they are still a small manufacturer.

What? Tesla has a 50% y2y growth... every-single-year (sans covid year). Tesla is selling everything they can build, and on top of that, at the highest margins compared to it's competitors.
Some people our really out of touch with reality.

Quote from: Gadget on July 03, 2023, 11:08:11While we're at it, we should fix the couple of backwards countries who write the date the wrong way (it should be DD/MM/YY) and get everyone using the science-based metric system rather than the archaic imperial measurements. 😙

It should be YYYY-MM-DD. Period.

As for metric system... The only countries that don't use the metric system are Liberia, Samoa, Palau, Micronesia, Marshall Islands... and of course, same as 3rd world countries, the USA. (Burma, UK and Canada using a mix).

Tesla shooting themselves in the foot if this is true(highly unlikely) as you are not allowed to sell cars en Masse in the UK unless they are UK spec, i.e. RHD... The exception being imports on limited numbers, and classic vehicles..

Quote from: Silent Majority on July 01, 2023, 23:14:08Since 70% of the world drives on the right (as in correct) side of the road, perhaps the lesser 30% should look at changing....

Good point. While we're at it, we should fix the couple of backwards countries who write the date the wrong way (it should be DD/MM/YY) and get everyone using the science-based metric system rather than the archaic imperial measurements. 😙

Quote from: Silent Majority on July 01, 2023, 23:14:08Since 70% of the world drives on the right (as in correct) side of the road, perhaps the lesser 30% should look at changing....

30% drive on the right side... The other 70% drive on the wrong side 😁

Quote from: Silent Majority on July 01, 2023, 23:14:08Since 70% of the world drives on the right (as in correct) side of the road, perhaps the lesser 30% should look at changing....

Who are you kidding?🙄
https://www.worldstandards.eu/cars/list-of-left-driving-countries/